The Federation of American Scientist has made available a report dated June 14, 2013, titled, “Armed Conflict in Syria: U.S. and International Response” which contains a concise analysis of issues pertaining to Syria.

The report was prepared by authors Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs and Christopher M. Blanchard, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, and contains historical as well as current information to include past and current congressional action and military conflict analysis, relevant population and refugee figures, graphics, to include: secular, military, insurgent, and regime breakdowns, including their associated flags, GDP, surrounding national impact analysis, and maps of the region(s) involved.

The report contains core information from which to continue further analysis of the region as it pertains to the current contemplation of U.S. military involvement.

Below is the index and summary sections of the report.

Index

• Assessment (1)
• Status of Ongoing Armed Conflict (2)
• Possible Questions for Congressional Oversight on Recent Events (4)
• Key Developments (8)
• Debating the Expansion of U.S. Civilian and Military Assistance (8)
• International Conference on Syrian Political Settlement (11)
• Can the Syria Civil War be Stopped? (12)
• Status of the Syrian Political Opposition (12)
• Al Qaeda, Extremism, and Foreign Fighters (14)
• U.S. Policy and Issues for Congress (9)
• The Syria Uprising and Civil War: U.S. Response, 2011-Present (9)
• Debating U.S. Intervention (12)
• U.S. Assistance (13)
• Securing Syrian Weapons Stockpiles (15)
• Outlook and Future Policy Considerations for Congress (18)
• Possible Appropriations and Authorization Issues (18)
• Securing Weapons Supplies and Sites (19)
• Addressing Syria’s State Sponsor of Terrorism Status (20)
• Other Questions for Congressional Oversight (21)

Summary

The popular-uprising-turned-armed-rebellion in Syria is in its third year, and seems poised to continue, with the government and a bewildering array of militias locked in a bloody struggle of attrition. The Obama Administration has signaled a pending expansion of U.S. civilian and military assistance to the opposition in the wake of the U.S. intelligence community’s conclusion that President Bashar al Asad’s forces used chemical weapons in limited attacks in recent months. U.S. officials and many analysts have asserted that President Asad and his supporters will be forced from power, but few offer specific, credible timetables for a resolution to the crisis. Further escalation in fighting or swift regime change could jeopardize the security of chemical and conventional weapons stockpiles, threaten minority groups, or lead to wider regional conflict.

Opposition forces are formidable, but regime forces, backed by Hezbollah fighters and Iranian and Russian material support, have initiated successful tactical counteroffensives in recent weeks. The Syrian military continues to use air strikes, artillery, and pro-government militias in punishing attacks on areas where rebels operate. Some members of Syria’s Sunni Arab majority and of ethnic and sectarian minority groups view the conflict in communal, zero-sum terms. U.S. officials believe that fighting would likely continue even if Asad were toppled.

Amid extensive damage to major urban areas and reports attributing war crimes to government and opposition forces, the fighting has created a regional humanitarian emergency. Some estimates suggest more than 90,000 Syrians have been killed since unrest began in March 2011. As of June 14, more than 1,638,102 refugees had fled Syria amid United Nations projections the total may reach 3.5 million by years end. According to U.N. estimates, as many as 4.25 million Syrians may be internally displaced. U.N. agencies have launched their largest ever humanitarian assistance appeal– seeking $4.4 billion for the Syria crisis in 2013. The United States has provided more than $513 million in humanitarian assistance to date.

President Obama and his Administration have been calling for Asad’s resignation since August 2011, and have pressed the United Nations Security Council to condemn the Syrian government. The United States has recognized the National Coalition of Revolution and Opposition Forces (SC) as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people and has provided nonlethal assistance to the Coalition and an affiliated Supreme Military Council (SMC). The Obama Administration believes that a negotiated political settlement is required and has prepared military plans to secure Syria’s stockpiles of chemical weapons, if necessary.

Some observers advocate for more robust civil and military aid to the SC and SMC as a means of forcing the Asad regime to the negotiating table. Opponents of this approach argue that making opposition groups more formidable could intensify the fighting and risks empowering extremists. Some armed opposition factions, including powerful Islamist coalitions, reject negotiation.

After two years of unrest and violence, the central question for policy makers remains how best to bring the conflict in Syria to a close before the crisis consigns the region to one of several destructive and destabilizing scenarios. The human toll of the fighting, and the resulting political, ethnic, and sectarian polarization, all but guarantee that political, security, humanitarian, and economic challenges will outlast Asad and keep Syria on the U.S. agenda for years to come.

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The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) works to provide science-based analysis of and solutions to protect against catastrophic threats to national and international security. Specifically, FAS works to reduce the spread and number of nuclear weapons, prevent nuclear and radiological terrorism, promote high standards for nuclear energy’s safety and security, illuminate government secrecy practices, as well as track and eliminate the global illicit trade of conventional, nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. FAS was founded in 1945 by many of the Manhattan Project scientists who wanted to prevent nuclear war and is one of the longest serving organizations in the world dedicated to reducing nuclear threats and informing the public debate by providing technically-based research and analysis on these issues.

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